In June 2004, Book Collector & Magazine contained a detailed article about collecting Agatha Christie first editions written by Richard Dalby. They also provided a very detailed price guide, though it is unclear who determined the values at that time - whether Dalby or the editors. All the values provided were for "Very Good" condition books and "Very Good" jacketed books, and also only for the correct first printing, first state editions.
A reader suggested that it would be interesting to see how values have changed over the last 20 years - a potentially daunting task, but also one likely to be controversial as value and condition are always subjective. But I've taken the challenge and look forward to reader input.
The Ground Rules.
I've laid a few ground rules for myself in this exercise as follows. First and most important is how a "Very Good" book is defined as this condition is used for the valuations. At the bottom of this article are the definitions most commonly accepted in the bookseller community and is likely how the 2004 article viewed it.
I'm basing my valuations on actual auction prices realised within the last few years or values of sold retail books I'm aware of - not listed prices for unsold books. If the book sold was 'Very Good', then that's a dominant determinant in my valuation. If it was lower quality, I use the price as a guide and extrapolate as fairly as I can. I do not include any signed books in the assessment. Because there are so few examples of 1920s 'Very Good' auction books, especially so in dust jackets, I've had to estimate many of these. I made my current valuation estimates prior to reviewing the 2004 valuations to avoid any historical bias. That said, this is certainly not a scientific study, but an exercise of curiosity.
Environmental Changes that Impact Pricing.
In 2004, most book trading still occured either at used book stores, via catalogues, or at auction houses. While some trading did occur on various online sites, it was a fraction of the volume occuring today. eBay was less than a decade old and had only just launced eBay mobile and eBay stores. ABEbooks, Biblio and other online sites were still in their formative years. ABEBooks, for example, only really saw growth after its acquisition by Amazon in 2008. The first iPhone didn't appear until 2007 so 'smart phone' browsing and shopping was non-existent. The reason I cite this is that the rapid growth of online portals and smart phones democratised pricing by allowing a truer balance between supply and demand to be found. Many authors have seen the retail value of their older printings collapse in the last 15-25 years as the more arbitrary pricing by dealers was challenged by a more informed consumer - especially for authors and titles without a robust auction house history. As you will see below, in this first instalment, older Christie books have mostly weathered this change to the retail landscape with strength.
The Value Comparison.
Below you will find two speadsheets I've compiled comparing 2004 to 2024. The first is for for books published in the 1920s,and the second is for the 1930s. I wanted to determine average changes per decade in addition to individual changes. For each book, I've provided the UK and US year of publication and the publisher. If the 2004 Book Collector estimate was a range, I selected the mid point. Also, all value estimates are in British Pounds. It is important to note that currency exchange rates change over time, so if you wish to convert these values to your own local currency, you'll need to look up historical exchange rates.
When comparing how these valuations changed over the 20 year period, I rounded the "change" amount - which is annualized. Thus, if we look at the UK printing of The Mysterious Affair at Styles it shows a 4% rate under book and an 8% rate under Book + DJ (i.e. with dust jacket). This means that based on the assumed valuations, collectors have seen 4% appreciation per year, annually and compounding, for the last 20 years, while the Book + DJ has appreciated faster at 8% APR.
1920 - 1929
1930-1939
Interpreting the Findings.
Based on my assumptions, over the last 20 years, UK jacketed books have appreciated the fastest - averaging 9% APR both for those from the 1920s and those from the 1930s. That both decades saw the same level of appreciation was rather surprising.
US jacketed books are close behind at 7% APR for those from the 1920s, while valuations of 1930s jacketed US books has lagged - gaining only 4% per annum. Some potential for future growth perhaps!
Unjacketed books showed slightly less growth, especially for US printings. While UK books (no jackets) appreciated 6% per annum for both decades, US printings saw 2% APR. However, after reviewing the 2004 Price Guide valuations, I do believe some of the US numbers were overvalued at that time given my records of what I paid for books then.
This is all perhaps quite logical as jacketed books are much scarcer, and scarcity drives demand and value. The US population in 1920s averaged around 115,000,000. The UK population was around 40,000,000 - almost 2/3rds less. This is why the amount of books printed in the US was generally much larger than the UK equivalent title. Hence there is a lot more stock of unjacketed US firsts which suppresses value growth. When once also considers the environmental changes discussed earlier, all of these numbers are still surprisingly strong.
In Pespective.
I've always said collecting is about buying, and preserving, what you love. However, it's always nice when what you've bought retains its value or appreciates. As shown above, jacketed 'Very Good' Agatha Christie first editions from the 1920s & 30s have likely appreciated from 4-7% (US), up to 9% (UK) per year over the last 20 years. By comparison, the FTSE 100 Stock Index averaged 5.7% over this same time frame, while Government Bonds (Gilts) averaged approximately 4%.
Comments Welcome.
I have no doubt this article will generate some input about incorrect valuations, or flawed methodology. I welcome it all. The goal here is to be a helpful resource is understanding the market for Christie first editions. If there's a way to improve the research, please contact me at collectchrisite@gmail.com . I have also placed this "Price Guides" without the 2004 historical numbers on my Price Guide page (link).
Condition Definitions.
Very Good: Describes a book that shows some small signs of wear - but no tears - on either binding or paper. A "Very Good" book would not have any of the following: library stamps, large previous owner signatures, heavy foxing, weak bindings, noticeable spine slant, frayed cloth, or staining.
A "Very Good" dustjacket would follow the same desciption as the book. In addition, it would not be priced clipped, but reflect the correct price as first issued. It would be complete with no chips missing or significant tears, edge wear or damage.
A "Fine" book is better than "Very Good" and approaches the condition of As New, but without being crisp. The book may have been opened and read, but there are no defects to the book, jacket or pages. For collectors of Christie, it is almost impossible to find a "Fine" book issued prior to 1960 just because age takes it's toll.
A "Good" book is lesser than "Very Good" and describes the average used worn book that has all pages or leaves present. Most used Christie books would fit into this category. Values for "Good" books are significantly less. Because many sellers (and owners) like to believe they have better books than they do in many cases it is important to make your own assessment from photos rather than using the description text only.
For pre-1940s Christie's, my observation is that maybe less than 5% could be considered 'Fine'. Then there is probably a further 20% that are 'Very Good', with the remaining 75% as 'Good' or worse.
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